Deep Research // Concentrated Bets

Cernunnos
Capital

We identify fundamental market dislocations and allocate capital to high-conviction ideas. We structure asymmetric bets with strictly capped downside and open-ended, convex upside.

Benchmark
S&P 500
Since Inception
433.95% Live · Through Jun 10, 2026
Year to Date
+109.20% Jan 1, 2026 · Live · Through Jun 10, 2026
Convictions
12 Assets Inception Nov 2024
Absolute Performance

Asymmetric
Outperformance

We do not aim to track or mimic the index. Our process focuses on identifying high-conviction dislocations, constructing structured positions, and managing downside exposure. The result is absolute return stream uncorrelated with equity betas.

Since Inception +433.95%
S&P 500 (SPY) +29.31%

Nov 1, 2024 → Jun 10, 2026 (live marks; cash flows from last sync)

Fiscal Year Fund SPY
FY 2025 +258.70% +20.89%
Since inception → Jun 10, 2026 +433.95% +29.31%

Growth Trajectory

Nov 1, 2024 → Jun 10, 2026

Cernunnos
S&P 500
Nov 2024 FY 2025 Jun 2026 0% 125% 250% 375% 500%
Allocation Strategy

High Conviction
Concentrated Ledger

Core Alpha Concentrated

Top 5 Primary Allocations

AST SpaceMobile
38.17%
Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares
29.96%
BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc.
9.82%
Oscar Health, Inc.
6.61%
Root, Inc. Class A Common Stock
3.77%

Convex & Macro Overlays

Secondary Hedged Allocations

Gold Fields
3.42%
Energy Fuels
2.14%
Uranium Energy
2.1%
Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A
2.07%
Cerebras Systems
0.75%
Asymmetry Engine

Payoff Convexity Simulator

Model option-like asymmetric payoffs under strict capital protection.

+100% CATALYST -50% 0% 0% +100%
Downside Floor (Loss Cap) -10%
Thesis Conviction (Convexity) 1.8x
Worst-Case Drawdown -10%
Outperformance at +50% Catalyst +100%
Philosophical Foundation

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."

George Soros // The Alchemy of Finance

Convex Underwriting Framework

Standard portfolios track linear indices, matching upside and downside. We structure concentrated, fundamental investments to decouple these forces. By utilizing asymmetric tools (structured equities, hard stop limits, options overlays), we cap worst-case losses at strict thresholds, while conviction-led underwriting unlocks exponential outperformance as our research thesis plays out.

The Doctrine

Foundational Laws of
Asymmetric Risk

Concentration

01 / THESIS

Diversification is hedge against ignorance. We do not dilute returns across mediocre ideas to satisfy indexing constraints. We deploy significant capital into a small number of deeply researched, high-conviction ideas where we have strong asymmetric confidence.

The Skew

02 / STRUCTURE

We only participate in opportunities with a convex risk profile. If the downside cannot be structurally capped—through options structure, seniority, or hard valuation floors—we pass. We seek scenarios where the probability of being right is secondary to the payoff scale when we are right.

Decisive Action

03 / EXECUTION

Deep fundamental research takes months of underwriting; trading takes seconds. We run a low-turnover portfolio, waiting patiently for dislocations to widen. When the market misprices a business's long-term outlook, we act aggressively. The hardest discipline is inactivity.

Volatility

04 / RISK

We view price volatility as the cost of admission for alpha, not as risk. Real risk is the permanent impairment of capital under stress, not temporary price fluctuations. We design our structures to survive market chaos, capitalizing on the panic of liquidity-constrained sellers.