AST SpaceMobile
Valuation Model Workbench
A transparent, scenario-driven model that turns operational assumptions into 2030 equity value, with sensitivities, probability-weighting, and discounting.
Inputs
Subscribers (2030)
— net (M)
· cap —M
50M—M900M
0%—%90%
0%—%60%
Deployment capacity (2030)
binding: —
20—400
0.20—6.00
10%—%100%
Demand net subs (no cap): —M
Unit economics
— revenue (B)
$0.50$—$6.00
$50M$—M$900M
-$500M—M+$500M
Valuation
— 2030 price
3×—×60×
-$10B—+$10B
150M—M450M
Risk & discounting
— PV price
0%—%60%
5%—%35%
Implied IRR (to 2030): —
Not financial advice.
Results
2030 economics → EV → equity value → price per share
Net subs: —M
Method: —
EBITDA: —B
EV: —B
2030 price
$—
Before ruin + discount
Ruin-adjusted
$—
Weighted by (1 − ruin)
Present value
$—
Discounted to today
Waterfall
| Revenue (2030) | $—B |
| OPEX | $—B |
| EBITDA (incl adj) | $—B |
| EV (multiple) | $—B |
| Less net debt (add cash) | — |
| Equity value | $—B |
| Shares | —M |
| Implied price | $— |
Sensitivity (EV/EBITDA × Net subs)
| × | — | — | — | — | — |
|---|
Charts
Ramp + valuation decomposition
Subscribers ramp
Revenue → EBITDA → EV